Can Germany hit its 2040 and 2045 climate goals?

Germany is on track to meet its climate targets for 2030, but the country faces a serious risk of falling short of its longer-term goals for 2040 and 2045, according to findings from the government’s upcoming 2025 Climate Protection Report, as revealed by Politico.

The report highlights both progress and persistent challenges in Germany’s ambitious effort to slash greenhouse gas emissions and transition to a greener economy.

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Germany Set to Hit 2030 Climate Targets

The government’s report offers some good news: if all currently adopted climate protection measures are fully implemented, Germany is expected to meet its total annual emissions targets for 2021 to 2030, as specified in the Climate Protection Act.

“Across all sectors, the climate protection measures adopted so far are sufficient to achieve the 2030 targets,” the report states, signaling success in reducing emissions over the next five years.

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2040 and 2045 Goals at Risk Without Further Action

However, the picture changes beyond 2030. The report warns: “The measures adopted so far are insufficient to achieve the 2040 and 2045 goals.”

While Germany is currently experiencing a positive trend in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the pace of this decline is projected to slow significantly after 2030 unless new countermeasures are introduced.

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Transport and Housing Sectors Remain Problematic

Even for the 2030 targets, the transport and housing sectors remain areas of concern.

• Transport: Although emissions are declining, they remain high, and there is “no clear sign of a reversal toward accelerated reduction,” the report warns.
• Housing: Annual targets are likely to be missed. By 2045, the report envisions over 11 million buildings equipped with heat pumps and 3.5 million more connected to heating networks. But progress is deemed “too slow” to achieve either the 2030 or 2045 goals.

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Industry Shows Promise But Faces Long-Term Challenges

The industrial sector achieved its climate target for 2024 despite a slight 0.1% rise in emissions. In fact, by 2030, the industry target is expected to be exceeded, along with similar gains in agriculture and waste management.

Yet from today’s perspective, even the industrial sector is predicted to miss the 2045 climate target due to emissions from power plants and process heat.

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UBA Data Confirms Projections

The findings align with projection data released in March by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). While the UBA also predicted Germany would meet its 2030 targets, it flagged a “risk of missing post-2030 targets despite progress.”

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Germany’s Climate Protection Act: A Legal Obligation

Under the Climate Protection Act, the German Federal Government must annually report on greenhouse gas emission trends, policy priorities, and forecasts for reaching climate goals. The 2024 Climate Protection Report already emphasized progress made under the previous administration, but also cautioned that “further action is needed.”

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The Road Ahead: Urgent Need for New Measures

To stay on course for its 2040 and 2045 goals, Germany will likely need to adopt additional climate policies and innovations in critical sectors. Without these, the nation risks undermining its reputation as a climate leader in Europe and globally. The upcoming Climate Protection Report will play a key role in shaping public debate and government action in the critical years ahead.

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