Germany faces a profound demographic transformation over the coming decades. The latest 16th coordinated population forecast by Destatis highlights the rapid aging of the population, with significant implications for the labor market, social security systems, and healthcare infrastructure. The baby boomer generation is transitioning into retirement, while smaller younger cohorts and lower birth rates are reshaping the population pyramid.
By 2035, one in four Germans will be aged 67 or older. Currently, 33 people of retirement age exist for every 100 working-age individuals, but this ratio is projected to increase to 43 by 2070 under moderate demographic trends. In a worst-case scenario, with persistently low birth rates and limited immigration, the ratio could climb to 61, nearly doubling today’s figure.
This demographic shift will strain Germany’s pension systems, with fewer than two contributors supporting every recipient of retirement benefits. The rising proportion of retirees underscores the need for sustainable pension policies and long-term social security planning.
The population of those aged 80 and above is projected to grow dramatically from the mid-2030s onward. In 2024, 6.1 million Germans were aged 80+, half of whom required care. As the baby boomer generation ages, this number is expected to rise to between 8.5 and 9.8 million by 2050, and stabilize at 7.4–10 million by 2070.
This growth will create significant demand for healthcare services, long-term care facilities, and home care resources. Policymakers will need to prioritize geriatric care infrastructure and workforce planning to meet the needs of an aging population.
Germany’s working-age population, defined as individuals between 20 and 66 years, is projected to decrease steadily. From 51.2 million in 2024, this cohort could shrink to 45.3 million by 2070 under favorable immigration and birth rate conditions, or fall to as low as 37.1 million in less optimistic scenarios.
This reduction is driven by the retirement of the large baby boomer cohort and the relatively small size of younger generations. Even high levels of net immigration cannot fully offset the decline. A shrinking workforce will challenge economic growth, labor markets, and social security funding, emphasizing the need for policies supporting employment, productivity, and migration.
By 2070, Germany’s total population is projected to range between 63.9 and 86.5 million. Under a moderate scenario of birth rates, life expectancy, and net migration, the population would be 74.7 million. This represents a significant reduction compared to earlier forecasts from the 15th population projection in 2022, which estimated a 2070 population of 70.2 - 94.4 million.
Population changes will not be uniform across Germany. Western states are expected to maintain relatively stable populations if annual net immigration exceeds 350,000, while eastern states will see declines of 14–30% by 2070. City-states such as Berlin, Hamburg, and Bremen may experience growth with moderate to high immigration, but low migration could cause an 11% decline.
Eastern Germany already has an older population, with 24% aged 67+ in 2024, compared to 20% in western states and 17% in city-states. These regional differences will require tailored strategies for healthcare, retirement, and social infrastructure.
Germany’s population forecast indicates an aging nation with rising care needs, a shrinking workforce, and stark regional disparities, highlighting the urgency of proactive demographic, economic, and social planning.
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