The number of school children in Germany is expected to rise significantly in the coming years and, despite a projected decline after 2032, will still remain higher than it is today. According to forecasts published on Sunday in Berlin by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs (KMK), the number of pupils will increase from around 11.2 million in 2024 to nearly 11.8 million by 2032.
This represents almost 600,000 additional children and adolescents. Across Germany, that would correspond to approximately 24,000 additional classes or nearly 1,200 new schools. After reaching the preliminary peak in 2032, the number of pupils will gradually decrease, but by 2040, with around 11.3 million students, it will still be about 77,000 higher than in 2024.
A lasting impact on the decline in student numbers will come from the weaker birth cohorts now entering the school system. The birth rate in Germany has fallen noticeably since 2022. On the other hand, the overall projection also takes into account around 230,000 pupils of Ukrainian origin. According to the KMK, the federal states use the current calculations for planning school construction, staffing requirements, and targeted support measures.
However, there are considerable regional differences. In the western German states, the number of pupils will continue to rise until 2033, reaching a peak eight percent higher than in 2024. In contrast, the number of school children in the eastern German states is expected to start declining as early as 2027. By 2040, the East is forecast to see a drop of more than 16 percent.
In Germany’s city-states, a decline of just under five percent compared to 2024 is also projected by 2040. The peak in student numbers there is expected to occur around 2028.
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