Long-troubled relations between nuclear-armed rivals India and Pakistan have rapidly worsened since a deadly attack in Kashmir targeting tourists that New Delhi blames on Islamabad.
One week since the April 22 attack in which 26 men were killed, the deadliest on civilians in a quarter of a century, analysts worry furious rhetoric on either side may escalate into military retaliation.
Terrorists targeted Indian tourists in the scenic town of Pahalgam, nestled in a verdant valley beneath the snowcapped Himalayan peaks of Kashmir. According to survivors, the attackers separated the men, questioned them about their religion, and opened fire at close range on those who were not Muslims. Among the 26 victims, all were Indian nationals except one from Nepal. The majority were Hindus, with the exception of one local Muslim, an individual who offered horse rides to tourists who was killed while attempting to stop the attackers from harming others.
This terrorist attack was also condemned globally by world leaders such as President Donald Trump "Deeply disturbing news out of Kashmir. The United States stands strong with India against Terrorism," he said. EU chief Ursula Von der Leyen called the Kashmir deaths a "vile terror attack", while Putin expressed "sincere condolences" for the consequences of a "brutal crime".
Indian police have identified two Pakistani nationals among the three fugitive alleged terrorists. The other is Indian. Police say they are members of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT), meaning the "Army of the Righteous", designated a terrorist organisation by the United Nations.
India accuses LeT of the 2008 Mumbai attacks, when 10 Islamist terrorists carried out a multi-day siege of the country's financial capital killing 166 people. New Delhi last week accused Islamabad of supporting "cross-border terrorism". Pakistan has denied any role in the Pahalgam attack, rejecting Indian accusations as "frivolous" and saying it was open to a "neutral, transparent and credible" investigation.
New Delhi has also issued a raft of punitive diplomatic measures. Those include suspending a water-sharing treaty, the closure of the main border crossing with Pakistan and downgrading diplomatic ties. India has ordered all Pakistani nationals to leave the country, with the exception of remaining diplomats, by April 29. Security forces have conducted more than 2,000 detentions and interrogations, according to a police source. The military also destroyed at least nine houses belonging to suspects. India has also banned more than a dozen Pakistani YouTube channels for allegedly spreading "provocative" content. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also given the military "operational freedom" to respond to this deadly attack. He also vowed to pursue the killers "I say to the whole world: India will identify, track and punish every terrorist and their backer," he said on Thursday."
Pakistan hit back with tit-for-tat measures, including expelling New Delhi's diplomats, and cancelling visas for Indian nationals with the exception of Sikh pilgrims. It also closed its airspace to Indian airlines. Islamabad also warned it would regard any attempt by India to stop the supply of water from the headwaters of the Indus River as an "act of war". Pakistan's defence minister has claimed to have "reinforced" its military to repulse any Indian aggression.
Some fear that military action is now imminent. The two countries have traded arms fire across the Line of Control, the de facto border in contested Kashmir, for five consecutive nights. The worst attack in recent years in Kashmir was at Pulwama in 2019, when terrorists rammed a car packed with explosives into a security forces convoy, killing 40 and wounding 35.
Indian fighter jets carried out air strikes on Pakistani territory 12 days later.
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