Germany's oil industry is cautiously optimistic that fuel prices will fall in the wake of a framework agreement between the United States and Iran to end hostilities, following months of conflict that sent global oil prices soaring. Christian Küchen, director general of the fuel and energy industry association en2x, told broadcasters RTL and ntv on Monday: "I would expect this to push prices downward."
However, Küchen was clear that a full return to pre-war price levels remains unlikely in the near term, pointing to severe damage sustained by energy infrastructure across the Gulf region during the conflict.
"It will take at least months before normal production levels are restored, possibly even years," Küchen said. "I continue to expect elevated prices compared to pre-crisis levels, because volumes are still missing from global markets."
On Sunday evening, US President Donald Trump announced that a framework agreement had been reached with Iran to end the fighting. He added that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would be lifted, along with the US Navy's blockade of Iranian ports. Iranian officials also confirmed an "immediate end" to hostilities.
The Strait of Hormuz lies between the Gulf of Oman and the Persian Gulf. Iran had largely blocked the strategically vital waterway, a key artery for global trade in oil, liquefied natural gas, and other goods, after war broke out with the United States and Israel at the end of February. The US responded with a naval blockade of Iranian ports. The combined effect triggered a sharp spike in oil prices worldwide.
Küchen also pointed to a separate factor set to push fuel prices higher in early July: the expiry of a government fuel discount scheme. "Just as companies lowered prices by 17 cents when the discount was introduced, we will now see the reverse," he said. The precise impact on prices at the pump, he added, will also depend on global market conditions at the time.
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