The outbreak of war involving Iran has sent shockwaves through global energy markets, pushing oil and gas prices sharply higher while stock markets fell across Europe and Asia. Analysts warn that a prolonged conflict could have severe economic consequences, particularly for energy-dependent Europe.
Crude oil prices surged around eight percent on world markets, briefly topping $80 per barrel on Monday morning. Analysts say prices above $100 per barrel are entirely plausible if the conflict extends. At petrol stations across Germany, prices jumped almost immediately, with long queues forming as consumers rushed to fill up ahead of anticipated further increases.
The ADAC motoring club confirmed a sharp rise at the pump since Friday. A litre of Super E10 averaged €1.780 on Friday, climbing to €1.830 by Monday morning. Diesel rose from €1.749 to €1.801 over the same period. "We expect prices to continue rising," an ADAC spokesperson said.
Herbert Rabl, spokesperson for the German petrol station operators' association, representing around 1,000 station licensees, said queues were forming nationwide. "Everyone is worried," he told AFP. Major fuel suppliers are expected to pass on an additional two to three percent above their own increased costs.
European natural gas prices initially surged more than 20 percent before climbing further after Qatar, the world's leading LNG producer, announced a halt to liquefied natural gas production on Monday, following Iranian strikes on two of its facilities. The Dutch TTF gas contract, the European benchmark, was up around 50 percent by early Monday afternoon.
The German government sought to reassure the public, stating that supply security remained unaffected since Germany does not directly import Qatari LNG. Despite the reassurance, energy market prices continued to rise sharply.
Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, the Arabian Sea, and the Indian Ocean. Roughly one-fifth of the world's daily oil output passes through this chokepoint, as does a similar share of global LNG trade. Any prolonged disruption to the strait would have far-reaching consequences for global energy supply chains.
Stock markets in Europe and Asia fell sharply at the open. Germany's DAX index was down more than two percent by midday. The US dollar and gold both gained as investors rotated into safe-haven assets. Bitcoin held relatively steady despite the turmoil, with crypto analyst Timo Emden noting its performance was "remarkably stable" given the circumstances.
Airline stocks took among the steepest losses, with carriers suspending all flights to the Middle East region. Major aviation hubs including Dubai were affected by widespread airspace closures. Oil majors such as TotalEnergies and PetroChina moved in the opposite direction, posting gains.
German shipping companies are directly caught up in the crisis. The German Shipowners' Association reported that at least 25 vessels belonging to German operators are currently in Persian Gulf waters, some within the conflict zone itself. Two cruise ships carrying around 7,000 passengers combined are unable to exit through the Strait of Hormuz for safety reasons.
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi raised concerns that the Suez Canal could also face disruption. The world's three largest shipping lines, MSC, Maersk, and CMA CGM, suspended transits not only through the Strait of Hormuz but also through the Bab el-Mandeb strait leading to the Suez Canal. Ships are now being rerouted around southern Africa via the Cape of Good Hope.
Analysts struck a cautiously measured tone on the medium-term outlook. Matthew Ryan of Ebury noted that geopolitical risk spikes historically cause only temporary market disruption, with recovery typically following once the initial shock fades. The critical question, he said, is whether the Strait of Hormuz faces a prolonged closure.
ING analyst Carsten Brzeski warned that a drawn-out conflict would hit Europe particularly hard. The continent imports virtually all of its oil and a substantial portion of its LNG, and a major energy price shock would arrive just as economic conditions had begun to recover.
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