The Greens have narrowly won the Baden-Württemberg state election, edging out the CDU in one of Germany's most politically significant regional contests. According to the state electoral authority, the Greens led by top candidate Cem Özdemir secured 30.2 percent of the vote, while the CDU under top candidate Manuel Hagel came in at 29.7 percent. Both parties received 56 seats each in the new state parliament.
The AfD finished third with 18.8 percent, its best-ever result in a western German state. The SPD also entered the new parliament but with 5.5 percent, marking the party's worst result at state level anywhere in Germany. The FDP fell out of the Baden-Württemberg state parliament for the first time in its history, receiving 4.4 percent and failing to clear the five-percent threshold. The Left Party, which has never held seats in the Baden-Württemberg parliament, also failed to enter with 4.4 percent. Voter turnout rose to 69.6 percent, up from 63.8 percent at the previous election five years ago.
Compared to the 2021 state election, the Greens lost 2.4 percentage points from their previous result of 32.6 percent. The CDU gained 5.6 points from 24.1 percent, while the SPD dropped 5.5 points from 11.0 percent. The AfD nearly doubled its share, climbing 9.1 points from 9.7 percent. The FDP lost 6.1 points from its previous 10.5 percent.
In terms of parliamentary seats, the Greens and CDU each hold 56 mandates, the AfD holds 35, and the SPD holds 10. The only viable coalition excluding the AfD is a continuation of the existing Greens-CDU alliance, which together commands a two-thirds majority in the new parliament. The two parties have governed Baden-Württemberg jointly for the past ten years under outgoing Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, the only Green state premier in Germany, who did not stand for re-election. Kretschmann had first led a coalition with the SPD from 2011 before switching to a partnership with the CDU, serving a total of 15 years in office.
Green candidate Özdemir indicated he was ready to continue the coalition with the CDU. "I hope to continue the alliance on equal footing," he said on election night. Speaking to supporters, he called the result "a spectacular comeback" for his party, which had trailed the CDU in opinion polls for much of the campaign period. CDU candidate Hagel described election night as a bitter one. He acknowledged that his party had clearly improved on its previous result but added: "But we have not won what we wanted to win." Hagel also criticised what he called a "dirty campaign" by the Greens "well below the belt" in the final days before the vote.
The SPD state and parliamentary group leader Andreas Stoch and FDP counterpart Hans-Ulrich Rülke both announced they would draw personal consequences from their parties' poor performances. AfD state leader and ministerial candidate Markus Frohnmaier said he was "proud" of his party's result. This was also the first Baden-Württemberg state election to use a two-vote system, with separate first and second votes. The CDU won the majority of the 70 direct constituency mandates, with 13 going to the Greens and one in Mannheim to the AfD. In second votes, the CDU led in just over half of all constituencies, with the Greens ahead in the rest and the AfD topping Pforzheim.
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