Germany’s Long-Term Care Population Nearly Doubles in Just a Few Years

The number of people in need of long-term care in Germany has nearly doubled within just a few years. According to the Barmer Care Report, which was obtained by AFP on Thursday, the number of individuals dependent on care services rose from three million in 2015 to 5.7 million in 2023. The increase can only be attributed to an aging population to a very limited extent.

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The proportion of people requiring care within the overall population also nearly doubled during this period, climbing from 3.21 percent to 6.24 percent. The study states that neither demographic trends nor the prevalence of disease explain the sharp rise, noting that only 15 percent of the increase can be linked to an aging population.

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A key driver of rising costs, according to the report, is the 2017 care reform, which shifted the system from care levels to care grades. This led to “an expansion of benefits through the introduction of a new definition of need for long-term care,” Barmer board chairman Christoph Straub explained.

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“Because accessing care services became easier, more and more people were classified as needing care and began receiving support earlier,” said study author Heinz Rothgang of the University of Bremen. As evidence, the report cites analyses of six acute and six chronic illnesses, including cancer, stroke, dementia, Parkinson’s disease, and heart failure.

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For all of these conditions, the share of patients who were also classified as needing care increased. For example, while 11.4 percent of people with cancer and 68.1 percent of those with dementia were considered in need of care in 2017, these figures had risen to 20.0 percent and 78.5 percent respectively by 2023. The proportion of newly care-dependent individuals also grew during this time for nearly all diseases examined.

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Straub reiterated his call to reform and financially stabilize the long-term care insurance system. “The contributors must not be burdened even further,” he said, referring to the federal-state working group convened by the Conference of Health Ministers, which is expected to present the key points of a major care reform later this year.

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