The financial situation of Germany’s statutory health insurance funds is even worse than previously thought. The Federal Ministry of Health now expects health insurers’ spending this year to be €3.5 billion higher than originally forecast, according to preliminary figures seen by AFP on Wednesday.
The figures also suggest that, even after the planned reform of the statutory health insurance system (GKV), funding gaps worth billions of euros are likely to persist in the coming years unless additional measures are introduced.
Spending by health insurers on doctors, pharmaceuticals and hospitals rose by 7.8 percent between January and March, according to the preliminary data, exceeding expectations. Until now, the ministry had projected total expenditure growth of 6.5 percent for the whole of 2026.
Even if spending growth eases slightly to 7.5 percent over the remainder of the year, the Health Ministry still expects overall expenditure to be around €3.5 billion higher than anticipated. According to the ministry, the effects of this would not be felt until 2027. The ministry’s updated forecasts are based on preliminary reports submitted by health insurers. The newspaper Bild was the first to report on the figures.
Germany’s statutory health insurance system is deeply in the red. Without reforms, a deficit of €15.3 billion is expected next year. In response, the federal government recently launched a reform bill aimed at generating savings of €16.3 billion in 2027, including a €1 billion buffer. In light of the new figures, however, that buffer would not be sufficient. Instead, a funding gap of €2.5 billion is projected for 2027.
The savings planned under the reform in subsequent years, rising to as much as €38.3 billion by 2030, would also fall short. Deficits would still remain at €1.9 billion in 2028, €4.4 billion in 2029 and €5.8 billion in 2030. The Health Ministry writes in its forecast that “additional relief measures” will therefore be necessary to stabilize contribution rates.
The preliminary figures show “significantly stronger expenditure growth” than had been forecast, a ministry spokesperson said in response to an AFP inquiry. The figures can only be assessed conclusively once the final data are available, which is expected at the end of June or the beginning of July. However, they clearly demonstrate “how serious the situation in the statutory health insurance system is.”
The opposition reacted sharply to the new projections. Green parliamentary group leader Britta Haßelmann told AFP: “How poorly crafted the statutory health insurance reform bill is becomes abundantly clear in light of the additional financial holes now identified in the health insurance funds.”
She said the draft legislation must therefore be “sent back to the drawing board.” “It can no longer be concealed: it will only work with genuine structural reforms,” Haßelmann stressed. Health Minister Nina Warken must not plug the funding gaps “on the backs of contributors, employers and employees working in the healthcare sector.”
“The financial situation of the statutory health insurance funds is becoming even more dramatic than expected,” said Left Party leader Ines Schwerdtner. “Something has to happen, but not at the expense of the insured.” According to Schwerdtner, Warken’s plans would mean “fewer services and poorer care, instead of finally tackling the structural problems.”
The Bundestag is due to hold its first debate on the statutory health insurance reform bill on Friday. The government wants the legislation passed before the parliamentary summer recess, which begins in early June. However, criticism of the plans had already been widespread before the newly identified funding gaps became known. On Wednesday, both doctors’ associations and the trade union Verdi called for protests.
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