Germany would be the primary destination country for people fleeing Iran should the ongoing war in the Middle East trigger large-scale displacement. That is the central finding of a new study by the Rockwool Foundation (RF) Berlin research institute, which was obtained by the Münchner Merkur ahead of its Friday edition.
Migration patterns typically build on existing connections between countries of origin and destination, said RF Berlin Director Christian Dustmann. "This underscores the importance of diaspora networks, which reduce the costs and risks of migration," said the Professor of Economics at University College London and co-author of the study.
According to a representative survey conducted by polling institute Gallup in 2024, 28 percent of Iranians surveyed at the time named Germany as their most likely destination country, followed by Canada at 13 percent, Turkey at 10 percent, and the United Kingdom and France each at 6 percent. Of 1,007 Iranians surveyed, 252 indicated they wished to emigrate. The study notes that these migration intentions largely align with the actual settlement patterns of more recent refugees from both countries. By the end of 2025, 29 percent of Iranian refugees were living in Germany.
The geographic distribution of migration intentions strongly mirrors the geographic distribution of existing refugee communities, said Tommaso Frattini, Deputy Director of the Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM) at RF Berlin. "This suggests that migration, in the event of increased displacement during the current crisis, is likely to follow already established migration corridors," said the Professor of Economics at the University of Milan.
Migration intentions do not, however, automatically translate into actual migration movements. "Practical constraints can influence actual migration flows, particularly in the early phases of a crisis," said Christian Dustmann. More distant destinations such as Canada, Australia, and the United States are harder to reach. "It is therefore likely that Europe, and Germany in particular, will become the primary destination of possible refugee movements should displacement as a result of the war increase."
Amid the war involving Iran, concerns about a potential mass exodus from the region are growing in Germany. Politicians from both the governing coalition and the opposition have called for Germany and Europe to prepare for a possible wave of displacement. Law enforcement authorities have warned of risks to internal security and urged a coordinated response.
The United States and Israel launched joint airstrikes against Iran on February 28. On the first day of the war, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other members of the Iranian leadership were killed in US-Israeli airstrikes in Tehran. Iran has since been attacking Israel, several Gulf states, and US facilities in the Gulf region with missiles and drones.
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