A large majority of Germans consider fundamental reforms essential, but only one in four believes the federal government will take the necessary steps any time soon, as it has promised. According to the ZDF Politbarometer published on Friday, 75 percent of respondents do not believe the CDU/CSU–SPD coalition will present reforms on taxes, the labour market, and pensions by the summer. Only 24 percent expect the government to follow through.
Dissatisfaction with the government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) remains at record levels. For 71 percent of those surveyed, the coalition is doing a rather poor job. Only 25 percent give the CDU–SPD alliance a positive assessment, and even among those, it is primarily supporters of the CDU/CSU who hold that view. As for Merz himself, just 26 percent of Germans are somewhat satisfied with his performance, while 71 percent say he is doing a rather poor job.
With 89 percent, a large majority of respondents consider fundamental reforms in Germany important, even if they lead to financial strain and cutbacks. Only nine percent see this as unimportant.
At the same time, there are considerable doubts about the country's overall willingness to embrace change. Only 23 percent believe there is a strong appetite for renewal among the public. Three quarters, 75 percent do not think German citizens are broadly ready for reform.
On a personal level, three percent of respondents said they would accept very significant burdens for the sake of fundamental reforms, while 29 percent would tolerate major burdens. Another 43 percent would be willing to accept moderate burdens, and 23 percent said they would not accept any burdens at all.
If federal elections were held next Sunday, the CDU/CSU would secure just 24 percent of the vote (down one point), its worst result in four years. The AfD would also lose a point but would still lead the field at 26 percent.
The SPD would remain stuck at its record low of 12 percent. The Greens would improve to 15 percent (up two points), while Die Linke would reach 12 percent (up one point). The FDP would hold steady at three percent. Under these numbers, the current CDU–SPD coalition would no longer command a parliamentary majority.
Looking ahead to the autumn state elections, a clear majority expects negative consequences for Germany if the AfD were to provide a state premier for the first time. Around two thirds, 67 percent of respondents said they would consider that a bad outcome, with the exception of AfD supporters. Twenty percent, including 88 percent of AfD supporters, would welcome an AfD-led state government, while 11 percent of all respondents said they would be indifferent.
If the AfD were to lead a government in an eastern German state, 65 percent believe the effects on Germany as a whole would be rather negative. Sixteen percent see it as rather positive, and 15 percent think it would have no significant nationwide impact. Seventy-two percent of Germans view the AfD as a threat to democracy, including 74 percent of respondents in western Germany and 61 percent of those in the east.
Half of the politicians on the top-ten list have dropped to their lowest-ever ratings in terms of public sympathy and performance. Defence Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) continues to hold the top spot despite hitting his personal low, with an average score of 1.3 on a scale from +5 to −5.
Baden-Württemberg Minister President Cem Özdemir (Greens) follows in second place with a score of 1.0 (unchanged). Chancellor Merz has fallen to his worst rating yet at minus 1.7 (previously minus 1.3), the same score as Economy Minister Katherina Reiche (CDU), also at minus 1.7 (previously minus 1.5). AfD leader Alice Weidel remains at the bottom of the list with minus 2.6 (previously minus 2.2).
The Mannheim-based Forschungsgruppe Wahlen conducted the poll for ZDF between 19 and 21 May 2026, surveying 1,340 randomly selected eligible voters by telephone and online. The poll is considered representative of the voting-age population in Germany, with a margin of error between two and three percentage points.
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