France and Poland on Friday will sign a new friendship and cooperation treaty, reflecting a growing alliance between two of the European Union's key powers and allies of Ukraine as it fights off Russia's invasion. French President Emmanuel Macron will ink the accord alongside visiting Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in the eastern French city of Nancy.
"This treaty will lift the Franco-Polish partnership to a high level of ambition in strategic areas for our two countries and for Europe, particularly defence and energy," said the French presidency. The treaty is a "game-changer" and "historic", Tusk said in comments on Wednesday, adding: "It is a treaty in which we assure each other of mutual assistance in the event of a threat or aggression."
Ties between France and Poland have tightened since Tusk, a former European Council president, became premier in late 2023, ending years of rule by the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party. Both nations have made clear their implacable support for Ukraine in the face of the Russian invasion and, with Germany undergoing unusual political instability, Warsaw's clout has also grown within the EU.
France has realised that "Poland is an essential partner in a high-risk environment," Pierre Buhler, former French ambassador to Poland and author of "Poland, History of an Ambition", told AFP. Tightening such partnerships has grown all the more important after US President Donald Trump made clear Europe should do more to ensure its own security. Analysts say NATO member Poland could have the EU's biggest army in the next decade.
The Polish army will have 216,000 troops in 2024, according to NATO data, already more than the French (205,000) and German (186,000) armies. It aims to reach 300,000 troops by 2035.
"Poland is saying: 'Yes, we are taking responsibility for ourselves by entering into an alliance with the strongest country in continental Europe'," said Marek Swierczynski, head of security and international affairs at the Warsaw-based consultancy Polityka Insight. Macron has also suggested widening the nuclear deterrent of France, the EU's only nuclear-armed power, to include other European nations.
Such protection is of immense interest to Poland which has a land border with Russia's exclave of Kaliningrad and has repeatedly warned that it too could be the target of Russian aggression. The location and timing of the signing of the treaty in Nancy from around 1400 GMT Friday afternoon are also loaded with symbolism. Nancy is part of the eastern Lorraine region, ruled in the eighteenth century by the deposed Polish king Stanislaw I, who was also the father-in-law of French King Louis XV.
Today, Nancy's main square, one of the most beautiful in all France which he planned as duke of Lorraine, is named Place Stanislas in his honour. Tusk and Macron will also be showing off their alliance on the same day that Russia under President Vladimir Putin marks victory in World War II with an imposing military parade in Red Square. Guests for the May 9 holiday will include Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Poland is also gearing up for presidential elections on May 18 where a nationalist candidate backed by the PiS will challenge the pro-European Warsaw mayor who has the support of Tusk, amid warnings of the risk of a Russian disinformation campaign.
The signing of the treaty in Nancy is also "a tool for strategic communication" said Swierczynski.
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