The German government on Friday moved to quash growing speculation that rivals within the centre-right CDU were quietly positioning themselves to replace Chancellor Friedrich Merz. At a regular press conference in Berlin, government spokesman Stefan Kornelius refused to engage with what he called mere rumour and speculation, insisting that the mood in the chancellery was constructive and focused on reform plans.
In off-the-record briefings to local media, government sources went further, calling the reports wild speculation. They used the German phrase "wueste Spekulation", a wordplay seen as a pointed dig at Hendrik Wuest, the North Rhine-Westphalia state premier whose name has surfaced as a potential alternative to Merz.
The 70-year-old chancellor is facing criticism on virtually every front. A promised spending programme to revive the struggling German economy has moved at a glacial pace, while critical reforms to healthcare and pensions remain stuck in coalition disagreements between the CDU and its centre-left SPD partners.
A Forsa poll this week found that just 14 percent of respondents were satisfied with Merz, while 84 percent expressed dissatisfaction, making him the most unpopular modern-day German chancellor. Political scientist Aiko Wagner of the Freie Universität Berlin told AFP that the government has had over a year to deliver on its policy agenda, and in the major areas, not a great deal has happened yet.
Adding to the pressure is Merz's inability to neutralise the growing influence of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which consistently leads opinion polls ahead of his CDU/CSU conservative bloc. The AfD's sustained popularity has raised questions about the chancellor's political strategy and whether the centre-right can reclaim ground lost to populist forces.
Wuest, aged 50, leads Germany's most populous state and represents the more centrist, Merkel-aligned wing of the CDU, putting him at odds with Merz, who was long a bitter rival of former chancellor Angela Merkel. When asked directly whether he wanted to be a substitute for Merz, Wuest reportedly said only that he was not a good football player, stopping short of a firm denial.
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He has also been working to raise his national profile, recently making an official trip to Poland and inviting Berlin-based political journalists to join him. However, analysts caution that Wuest faces significant hurdles. Peter Matuschek, a political analyst at Forsa, noted that someone from state-level politics who has never been active at the federal level still carries considerable uncertainty when it comes to building nationwide popularity.
While it is technically possible for a German chancellor to leave office before the end of a term, through resignation or a vote of no confidence, the process is deliberately difficult and a forced exit appears unlikely for now. The drama nonetheless highlights how volatile German politics has become, coming less than two years after former chancellor Olaf Scholz's coalition collapsed and triggered snap elections.
Pressure on Merz is expected to intensify when key state elections take place in September in eastern German regions that are AfD strongholds, including Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. If reform projects continue to stall and the AfD performs strongly, the leadership question could return with renewed force.
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