After roughly 35 years of uninterrupted SPD governance, Rhineland-Palatinate is heading for a historic change of power. The CDU, led by top candidate Gordon Schnieder, comfortably won the state election on Sunday, according to projections, and is set to lead the new state government in Mainz. The SPD, which has governed the state since 1991, recorded its worst-ever result in a Rhineland-Palatinate state election following massive losses.
The AfD finished in third place, according to projections, with a clear gap ahead of the Greens, who currently govern alongside the SPD and FDP in a traffic-light coalition in Mainz. The FDP failed to re-enter the state parliament, as did the Free Voters. The Left Party also fell short of entering parliament for the first time, meaning the new state legislature will consist of just four parties.
According to the provisional final result, the CDU secured 31.0 percent of the vote, while the SPD came in at 25.9 percent. The AfD reached 19.5 percent, the Greens polled at 7.9 percent, and the FDP was recorded at 2.1 percent. The Free Voters received 4.2 percent, and the Left Party came in at 4.4 percent.
Based on these projections, the CDU can expect 36 to 37 seats in the new state parliament, while the SPD is set to receive 31 seats. The AfD will hold 24 seats, and the Greens will take nine to ten seats. Coalition options in the new parliament are therefore limited, with the only mathematically and politically realistic option being a governing alliance between the CDU and SPD.
Compared to the state election five years ago, the SPD lost 9.8 percentage points according to the provisional final result and is the clear election loser. The AfD gained 11.2 percentage points, more than doubling its result, and has established itself, as it already did at the Baden-Württemberg state election two weeks earlier, as the unchallenged third force in the party landscape.
The CDU gained 3.3 percentage points compared to the 2021 election. "The CDU Rhineland-Palatinate is back," declared top candidate Schnieder to the cheers of supporters at his party's election night event after the first results were released. The Christian Democrats had governed in Mainz for decades until 1991, former Chancellor and honorary CDU chairman Helmut Kohl served as Minister-President there between 1969 and 1976.
The Greens and Free Voters lost ground according to projections, while the Left Party nearly doubled its result compared to 2021. The FDP, meanwhile, lost more than half of its support since the last election.
SPD top candidate Schweitzer acknowledged his party's defeat but struck a combative tone. The Social Democrats would play a "strong role" in the future government, he said. The SPD had "not quite gotten as far as we had envisioned," he added. "But we should not bury our heads in the sand."
In Berlin, a debate over the implications for the federal black-red coalition began on election night itself. SPD federal chairman Lars Klingbeil anticipated discussions about the party's leadership. "I know that with this result, there will be debates about personnel," he said. SPD General Secretary Tim Klüssendorf placed the blame for the election defeat in Rhineland-Palatinate on the SPD at the federal level. "Ganz klar" lay a responsibility for the defeat there, he emphasised.
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann, however, did not expect any impact on the federal black-red government. The election in Rhineland-Palatinate had been about state-level issues, he said. In the coalition in Berlin, the focus was on federal matters, "and there we are talking about reforms that need to happen - and on that we agree with the SPD," Linnemann added.
AfD top candidate Jan Bollinger, meanwhile, put forward his party as a potential coalition partner in Mainz. CDU top candidate Schnieder now has "now has the best result, and it is up to him to consider what he does with it," Bollinger said.
The state election five years ago was won by the SPD, then led by Minister-President Malu Dreyer, with 35.7 percent of the vote. The CDU finished at 27.7 percent in 2021, followed by the Greens with 9.3 percent and the AfD with 8.3 percent. The FDP secured 5.5 percent ahead of the Free Voters at 5.4 percent, while the Left Party clearly missed the threshold for parliamentary entry with 2.5 percent.
Voter turnout five years ago stood at 64.3 percent, this time around, it rose to 69.3 percent according to ZDF.
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