Voters in the southwestern German state of Baden-Württemberg headed to the polls on Sunday in the first of five state elections scheduled in Germany this year. Around 7.7 million people were eligible to cast their ballots, with the result expected to be closely watched as a barometer of the national political mood under Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
Polls heading into election day pointed to a tight race between the centre-right CDU and the Greens, with both parties sitting at around 28 percent, a dramatic shift from the last state election in 2021, when the Greens won convincingly with 32.6 percent against the CDU's 24.1 percent.
The CDU, which won federal elections a year ago, is hoping to reclaim first place in Baden-Württemberg after the Greens have led the state for the past fifteen years under Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann, 77, who is stepping down. Leading the CDU's campaign is Manuel Hagel, 37, a former bank branch manager. His campaign faced turbulence after comments he made about female students during a school visit in 2018 were widely judged as sexist and inappropriate. He has since apologised for the remarks.
The Greens are fielding Cem Ozdemir, 60, as their lead candidate. A prominent national figure, Ozdemir became one of Germany's first MPs of Turkish origin in 1994 and later served as agriculture minister under former Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Should the Greens retain first place, Ozdemir would be set to become Germany's first state premier of Turkish heritage, taking over from Kretschmann. He is associated with the Greens' pragmatic wing and has publicly signalled his distance from more left-leaning factions within his party, telling public broadcaster ZDF: "Not every idea that comes from my party is always correct."
The two parties governed Baden-Württemberg together for the past ten years, with the Greens as the dominant force. A continuation of that coalition is widely seen as the only realistic governing option regardless of which party finishes ahead.
The far-right Alternative for Germany is polling at between 18 and 20 percent in Baden-Württemberg, which would represent its best-ever result in a western German state. While still well below the party's national polling figures of around 25 percent, the result would mark a significant milestone for the anti-immigration party in a state where it has historically underperformed.
The AfD's lead candidate, Markus Frohnmaier, has drawn national attention for his publicly expressed sympathies with Russia and with the MAGA movement of US President Donald Trump. Ahead of election day, he posted approvingly on X about a poll putting his party at 20 percent in the state, calling such a result "sensational" and the best the AfD had ever achieved in a western German state.
For the CDU and Merz, stemming the AfD's advance is one of the central goals of this year's regional election cycle. A poor showing in Baden-Württemberg, traditionally a CDU stronghold, would be an early setback for a party that has bet heavily on a tougher migration policy to win back AfD voters.
Baden-Württemberg is home to some of Germany's most prominent industrial names, including Porsche and Mercedes-Benz. The state has been hit particularly hard by the ongoing crisis in the automotive sector, with rising unemployment and pressure on suppliers adding to voter anxiety. Economic policy emerged as the dominant campaign issue, pushing immigration, still ranked second by voters, into the background. Education policy ranked third among the concerns most cited by voters in the state.
Brian Fuerderer, 34, the head of a local company making surgical equipment, told AFP he found the electoral campaign "weak." He said the parties were avoiding the most essential issue, the economy, as well as Germany's dependence on foreign energy supplies, a vulnerability thrown into stark relief by the war in the Middle East.
Merz has made reviving Germany's sluggish economy a central plank of his chancellorship and lobbied the EU to allow more flexibility on its planned ban on new combustion-engine cars after 2035. Even Ozdemir broke with his party's traditional position, calling for a more flexible approach to the transition to electric vehicles.
This year's vote introduced two notable changes for Baden-Württemberg. For the first time, 16 and 17-year-olds were eligible to vote, following a reduction of the voting age from 18. The election also introduced a two-vote system, a first and a second vote, mirroring the format used in federal elections.
Smaller parties face an uncertain outcome. The centre-left SPD is forecast to record a historically poor result, with polls projecting between seven and nine percent. Both the FDP and the Left Party are fighting to clear the threshold required to enter the state parliament.
Chancellor Merz attended the CDU's final campaign rally in Baden-Württemberg on Friday, framing the vote as a test of whether his party could hold its ground at a difficult moment. "Is the CDU still able to win elections, even when in government at such a turbulent time?" he asked.
The next state election follows on 22 March in Rhineland-Palatinate, where the CDU is hoping to unseat the SPD. Later in the year, a series of votes in eastern Germany, where the AfD can expect to perform strongly, will further test the national political landscape.
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