The AfD has won the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt state election by a wide margin, but its historic result does not give it enough seats to govern alone.The party received 43.8% of the vote and will hold 39 of the 83 seats in the new state parliament. An absolute majority requires 42 seats. The result therefore leaves Saxony-Anhalt facing complicated negotiations over who will lead the state government.
There will be no gap in government. Until a new minister-president is elected, outgoing CDU Minister-President Sven Schulze and his ministers will remain in office in a caretaker capacity. The newly elected state parliament must hold its first sitting by October 6, 2026, 30 days after the election. During the session, MPs will adopt parliamentary rules and elect a new president of the state parliament.
There is no fixed legal deadline for electing the new minister-president. This gives parties time to negotiate possible coalitions or other forms of cooperation. The election itself is conducted by secret ballot, and several candidates can stand.
In the first round, a candidate needs an absolute majority of all 83 MPs, at least 42 votes. If nobody reaches that number, a second round must take place within seven days, with the same requirement. If the second round also fails, the state parliament has 14 days to decide whether to dissolve itself. A majority of all MPs is required for dissolution.
If parliament does not dissolve, a third round takes place immediately. In this round, a candidate needs a simple majority of the votes cast. Abstentions are not counted. This means a candidate can become minister-president without receiving the support of 42 of the 83 MPs.
The AfD cannot form a conventional majority government on its own because it has only 39 seats. All other parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD. However, AfD top candidate Ulrich Siegmund changed his position on election night, saying he would reach out to parties willing to implement AfD policies.
An AfD-led minority government is therefore one possible scenario. Such a government would need support from other parties for individual legislation. Siegmund would also need votes from outside his own party to become minister-president. The third-round vote could be particularly important because, depending on how other MPs vote, even a small number of votes from outside the AfD could determine the result.
The CDU, SPD and Greens together have 31 seats. They could seek to form a minority coalition, but the CDU has ruled out a coalition with the Left Party. The Left Party has eight seats and has indicated that it could consider supporting or tolerating a CDU-led government under certain conditions. That would bring the potential bloc to 39 seats.
But that still creates a problem in a third-round minister-president vote: the AfD also has 39 seats. If all MPs vote along party lines, neither side would have more votes than the other.
The BSW holds five seats, making it potentially crucial to the outcome. BSW top candidate Claudia Wittig has said the party does not want to vote for either Ulrich Siegmund or Sven Schulze. At the same time, she has said the BSW is prepared to cooperate with the AfD on specific issues. If BSW lawmakers abstain, the deadlock between the two 39-seat blocs could remain. But if the BSW supports one candidate, its votes could change the outcome. Even one BSW MP could potentially become decisive in the third round.
No. The term “mandate to govern” is political rather than a formal constitutional right. The AfD, as the party with the most votes, can seek to form a government. But other parties can also attempt to build a governing majority. Ultimately, what matters legally is whether a candidate can secure the required majority in one of the minister-president elections.
Yes. The state constitution provides three routes to new elections. After an unsuccessful second round of the minister-president election, the state parliament can vote to dissolve itself. Parliament can also decide to dissolve itself with a two-thirds majority, although such a motion cannot be brought until six months after the election.
A third possibility arises if a newly elected minister-president loses a confidence vote. For now, however, the immediate challenge is to find a candidate who can win enough support in the new state parliament, with the AfD, CDU-led camp and BSW all potentially playing a crucial role.
Watch the video to see how Saxony-Anhalt could form its next government.
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