Prolonged dry weather continues to lower water levels on the Rhine, disrupting freight transport along the busiest inland trade waterway in Europe. The river connects the Port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands with much of western Germany, making it one of the country's most important transport routes for goods. Less rain fell than forecast over the past weekend, and Germany's national weather service is expecting another period of high temperatures, particularly further south along the river.
With water levels unlikely to rise above critical thresholds at the beginning of August, transport capacity is expected to remain impaired into next month. One of the key locations being monitored is Kaub, between Koblenz and Mainz. The benchmark gauge there fell to 30 centimetres on Tuesday. Germany's waterways authority expects the level to decline to around 25 centimetres by Friday, matching the record low reached in October 2018.
The Rhine carries a wide range of commodities, including grain, minerals, ores, coal and petroleum products such as petrol. As water levels continue to fall, cargo vessels can no longer operate with full loads.
Instead, shipments have to be divided across several vessels. Traders say some inland cargo ships are currently operating with only 15% to 20% of their maximum carrying capacity. Carrying smaller loads increases transport costs and places additional pressure on an economy that had recently begun to show signs of a modest recovery.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that the disruption could reduce Germany's gross domestic product by between 0.1% and 0.2% during the third quarter. Many economists expect the German economy to grow by no more than 0.2% during the summer months. According to the institute, the disruption to inland shipping could therefore push Europe's largest economy towards stagnation.
Stefan Kooths, Director of the institute's Business Cycle and Growth Research Group, said the effects of the low water levels could be strong enough to reduce gross domestic product by between 0.1% and 0.2% in the third quarter. He also said transport capacity is likely to remain impaired for some time in August because water levels are unlikely to rise above critical thresholds at the beginning of the month.
Kooths added that under normal economic conditions, prolonged disruption on the Rhine would reduce industrial activity by around 0.8% in July and lower overall monthly economic output by about 0.2%. However, he said the current weakness of German industry could make the overall impact somewhat smaller.
According to Deutsche Bank Research analysts, the disruption caused by low water levels is being compounded by the closure of an important rail route. The railway line on the eastern bank of the Rhine is closed to freight traffic for renovation work until 12 December. Even under normal circumstances, rail can replace only a limited share of inland shipping capacity, leaving fewer options for moving freight while river transport remains restricted.
North Rhine-Westphalia's Economy Minister Mona Neubaur said the current low water levels are creating challenges for the economy and that the state government is monitoring the situation closely. She described the Rhine as not only a lifeline but also one of Germany's most important trade routes.
Neubaur rejected calls from parts of the business community to deepen the Rhine along its entire length, saying that deepening the navigation channel across the full route would not provide the solution. She said that if work at individual sections could significantly improve conditions, each proposal should be carefully assessed on a case-by-case basis.
She also said the current period of low water would not be the last. Alongside efforts to slow climate change, she said society must also prepare for its consequences. For that reason, the North Rhine-Westphalia government is supporting research into modern vessels that can transport more cargo even when navigation channels are shallower.
The disruption on the Rhine comes as Germany faces broader water shortages following prolonged heat and dry weather. Several cities and regions have already introduced water-saving measures. Alongside Munich, authorities in Potsdam, North Rhine-Westphalia and districts across Baden-Württemberg and Thuringia have imposed restrictions to conserve water.
Municipal associations have warned that more local authorities could take similar steps if dry conditions continue, highlighting that the impact of water scarcity is being felt far beyond inland shipping.
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