Germany’s demographic shift is affecting schools earlier than previously expected, according to a new analysis. The nationwide number of students is now projected to reach its peak in 2029, three years earlier than previous calculations suggested, according to new forecasts published by the Standing Conference of the Ministers of Education and Cultural Affairs (KMK) on Friday in Berlin.
The number of students across Germany is expected to continue rising for several more years. However, the nationwide peak is now forecast for 2029, when the student population is expected to reach around 11.54 million before beginning to decline, the KMK said, emphasising: “The curve is turning earlier.” With some delay, secondary schools and vocational schools are also expected to reach their highest student numbers around the middle of the 2030s.
The main reason is the “particularly sharp decline in birth rates since 2021”, which has been taken into account more comprehensively than in previous calculations. The number of births in 2025 fell to its lowest level since 1946.
According to the latest forecast, the total number of students will decline more sharply by 2040 than previously expected. The current model calculation puts the number of students at 10.58 million in 2040. Compared with 2025, this would represent a decline of 694,000 students, or 6.2 percent. The previous KMK forecast, which has now been superseded, had expected 677,000 more students in 2040.
The KMK also stressed that the figures are standardised model calculations. Demographic developments are expected to vary considerably between federal states and regions, depending, among other factors, on economic developments and migration trends. It has been known for some time that major cities and metropolitan areas are continuing to grow, while structurally weaker rural areas are experiencing significant population losses, particularly in some parts of eastern Germany.
According to the forecast, the total number of students in western German non-city states is expected to be only 3.6 percent below the 2025 level in 2040, while the decline in the eastern German non-city states is expected to be around 21 percent.
The education ministries of the federal states stressed that the figures are model calculations based on currently available trends and are not definitive statements about the future. Changes that cannot yet be foreseen, including developments in birth rates, educational behaviour and migration, could still alter the forecasts in the future.
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