Unlike in previous years, Germany is at risk of missing its legally binding climate target in 2026. That is the conclusion of calculations published on Friday by the think tank Agora Energiewende, based on preliminary data. Greenhouse gas emissions did continue to fall in the first half of the year, but only marginally, by seven million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The decline was also attributable primarily to the difficult economic situation and to price effects.
The upper limit for German greenhouse gas emissions has been set at 625 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent for the current year. In 2025, emissions came to 648.9 million tonnes. For the first half of 2026, Agora Energiewende's calculations registered emissions of 327 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent, two per cent less than in the same period a year earlier.
For 2026 as a whole, emissions of around 635 million tonnes are now expected. While that would be slightly below the previous year's figure, it would still exceed the permitted annual value. Meeting the 2030 climate target would additionally require an average annual reduction of 40 million tonnes.
According to the figures, the seven-million-tonne fall recorded so far this year is due above all to the fossil energy price crisis triggered by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which was followed by significantly higher oil and gas prices. New sales records for heat pumps and electric cars also had a positive effect on the emissions balance.
"The first half of 2026 is clearly marked by the fossil energy price crisis: once again, the German economy is being painfully hit by fossil fuel price shocks," said Julia Bläsius, Director of Agora Energiewende Germany. "At the same time, the electrification trend among consumers is continuing, with record sales of heat pumps and electric cars."
Bläsius called on the federal government to harness and reinforce this momentum by aligning its energy and industrial policy consistently with renewable energy and electrification. "Only in this way will Germany become more independent of fossil fuels and its economy more crisis-resilient," the head of Agora Energiewende urged.
Agora Energiewende put the additional cost of importing crude oil and natural gas since the start of the Iran conflict at the end of February at around 7.4 billion euros, even though oil imports rose by only two per cent year on year over that period, while natural gas imports actually fell by eleven per cent. In the case of oil, the higher prices fed through to consumers directly at the filling station; for gas, this will happen only with a time lag because of existing supply contracts.
Responding to the Agora Energiewende calculations, the Federal Environment Ministry said these were so far merely "mid-year estimates" and not an annual balance sheet. "The decisive emissions data for 2026 will be presented by the Federal Environment Agency by 15 March 2027," it added.
It was currently "far too early" for a robust, sound assessment of greenhouse gas emissions for 2026. The ministry pointed to uncertainties around further economic developments as well as to additional climate protection measures adopted by the government, such as support for electric mobility.
Germany is required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 65 per cent by 2030 compared with 1990 levels. That translates into permitted emissions of just 439 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent. The Expert Council on Climate Issues is likewise warning of a looming failure to meet the target, a shortfall that is expected to widen further in subsequent years.
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