Three days before the Berlin House of Representatives election, a poll conducted for German public broadcaster ZDF puts the opposition Left Party narrowly ahead of the governing CDU. According to the survey published in Mainz on Thursday by the Research Group Wahlen, the Left Party led by top candidate Elif Eralp is polling at 22 percent, down one percentage point from the previous week. The CDU, led by top candidate Stefan Evers, has also lost one point and now stands at 20 percent.
The AfD follows with 18 percent, gaining one percentage point. The Greens are at 15 percent, down one point, while the SPD has risen by two points to 12 percent. The BSW has gained one percentage point and now stands at four percent, meaning it would still fail to enter the state parliament. The FDP is not listed separately in the poll and would once again fail to win seats in the state parliament.
The survey questioned 1,611 eligible voters in Berlin from Monday to Thursday. Of those surveyed, 77 percent said their voting decision was already certain, while 23 percent remained undecided. When asked who they would like to see become Berlin's next Governing Mayor, 25 percent chose Eralp as their preferred candidate. Evers was backed by 24 percent as their choice for Berlin's head of government.
Berlin's House of Representatives will be newly elected on Sunday, at the same time as the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. According to the polls, three-party coalitions involving either the CDU or the Left Party together with the Greens and SPD are politically and mathematically possible in Berlin.
Berlin is currently governed by a coalition of the CDU and SPD under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner (CDU). However, Wegner withdrew as the CDU's top candidate following criticism of his crisis communication after a major power outage that lasted several days in mid-July. Finance and Culture Senator Evers became the CDU's top candidate instead.
The 2023 election, which was a repeat election following numerous irregularities during the 2021 vote, was won by the CDU with 28.2 percent of the vote. The SPD and Greens followed with 18.4 percent each. The Left Party received 12.2 percent, while the AfD won 9.1 percent. The FDP failed to enter the state parliament with 4.6 percent. The BSW did not contest the election at the time.