Just over a week before the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, polls continue to show the opposition AfD ahead of the governing SPD led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig. In a poll by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen for ZDF, published in Mainz on Friday, the AfD, led by its candidate for minister-president Leif-Erik Holm, received 37 percent, while the SPD reached 34 percent.
The governing Left came third with 10 percent, followed by the CDU at 7 percent. The Greens could remain in the Schwerin state parliament with 5 percent. The BSW, at 4 percent, would fail to enter the state parliament. The FDP would leave the parliament, although its figure was not reported separately. More than 1,000 eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania were surveyed from Monday to Thursday. Twenty-five percent were still undecided.
A survey by Infratest dimap for ARD, conducted from Monday to Wednesday and published on Thursday, produced similar results. The AfD reached 38 percent, ahead of the SPD at 33 percent. The Left followed with 9 percent, the CDU with 7 percent and the Greens with 5 percent. The BSW also remained below the five-percent threshold at 4 percent. The FDP was likewise not reported separately.
Compared with an Infratest-dimap poll published the previous week, the AfD gained three percentage points, while the SPD rose by one point. The Left lost two points and the CDU declined by one point. The Greens and BSW remained unchanged. The FDP was not listed separately.
A survey by the Insa institute for the Nordkurier, published on Thursday, produced 36 percent for the AfD and 33 percent for the SPD. The Left followed with 11 percent, ahead of the CDU at 7 percent and the Greens at 5 percent. The BSW would fail to enter parliament with 4 percent, while the FDP was not mentioned. The survey was conducted from Tuesday of the previous week through Tuesday.
Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania will vote on Sunday next week, at the same time as the Berlin House of Representatives election. In Schwerin, the state is currently governed by a coalition of the SPD and the Left Party, which according to the polls would no longer have a majority. Politically and mathematically, the only conceivable option is a three-party coalition of the SPD, Left Party and Greens.
According to the ZDF poll, if voters could directly elect the minister-president, 61 percent would choose incumbent Minister-President Schwesig, while 28 percent would choose AfD challenger Holm. A coalition of the SPD and Left Party received the highest level of support at 46 percent, but it would not have a majority.
In the ARD poll, 58 percent said they were very satisfied or satisfied with Schwesig's work. AfD lead candidate Holm received a satisfaction rating of 27 percent. The SPD also leads the AfD when voters are asked which party should lead the next state government, with 55 percent backing the SPD compared with 32 percent for the AfD.
The SPD won the September 2021 election with 39.6 percent, ahead of the AfD with 16.7 percent, the CDU with 13.3 percent and the Left with 9.9 percent. The Greens and FDP also entered the Schwerin state parliament, receiving 6.3 percent and 5.8 percent respectively. The BSW did not contest the election at the time.
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