The AfD led by state premier candidate Leif-Erik Holm has come out ahead of the governing SPD in initial projections for the Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state election. According to projections by ARD and ZDF, the AfD received between 37 and 38 percent of the vote in Sunday’s election, while the SPD of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig reached between 35.5 and 36.5 percent. The CDU suffered major losses, with its result hovering around the five-percent threshold.
The governing coalition partner The Left also lost support compared with the 2021 election, according to the projections. It received between 6.0 and 7.5 percent of the vote. The CDU fell dramatically to between 5.0 and 5.5 percent and was therefore facing uncertainty over whether it would return to the state parliament in Schwerin.
The Greens were also not certain to return to parliament, with a projected result of 5.5 percent. The FDP was eliminated from the state parliament with between 1.0 and 1.2 percent of the vote. The BSW was projected at between 4.8 and 5.0 percent, meaning it was also facing uncertainty over whether it would enter the state parliament.
According to the projections, the AfD could expect between 27 and 31 seats in the new state parliament, depending on whether smaller parties enter the parliament. The SPD was projected to receive between 26 and 30 seats. The Left was expected to win five to six seats, while the CDU, Greens and BSW were each projected to receive four seats.
The possible coalition options therefore remained largely unclear. According to ZDF, voter turnout stood at 75.5 percent, compared with 70.8 percent in the 2021 election.