AfD Ahead at 35% in New Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Election Poll

Around two and a half weeks before the state election in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the AfD remains in the lead with 35 percent of the vote, according to a poll. However, the SPD, led by Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, is gaining ground and has reached 32 percent. - AFP

Around two and a half weeks before the state election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD remains ahead in voter support, according to a new poll. The survey by the Infratest dimap institute for Norddeutscher Rundfunk, published on Thursday, puts the party at 35 percent. That is one percentage point less than in a previous poll conducted at the beginning of July. The SPD of Minister-President Manuela Schwesig, meanwhile, is gaining ground and adds three points to reach 32 percent.

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Smaller parties slip further back

The Left Party, which governs alongside the SPD, loses one point and stands at eleven percent. The opposition CDU sheds another point and reaches eight percent. The Greens remain at five percent and could therefore just manage to return to the state parliament in Schwerin. The BSW, again at four percent, would fail to enter. The FDP would clearly fall short of the five-percent threshold and drop out of parliament.

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What the numbers would mean for government formation

According to the poll, Schwesig's red-red coalition would no longer have a majority. Should the Greens clear the five-percent hurdle, however, a red-red-green coalition would be possible. Apart from the AfD, the figures would not be enough for other coalitions, because the CDU also rules out alliances with the Left Party. A total of 1,215 eligible voters in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern were surveyed from Wednesday of last week until Monday.

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Schwesig dominates the head-to-head question

In a direct election of the head of government, 60 percent would opt for Schwesig and 25 percent for AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm. Fifty-six percent say the SPD should lead the next state government, while 31 percent prefer the AfD. The state election takes place on 20 September, at the same time as the election to Berlin's House of Representatives. Before that, Saxony-Anhalt elects a new state parliament this Sunday.

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How the state voted in 2021

The September 2021 election in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern was won by the SPD with 39.6 percent, ahead of the AfD with 16.7 percent, the CDU with 13.3 percent and the Left Party with 9.9 percent. The Greens and the FDP also entered the Schwerin state parliament, with 6.3 percent and 5.8 percent respectively. The BSW did not yet run at that time.

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